As Douglass North points out, institution –or system– is “the rules of the game of a society”.
One of the biggest task in analyzing system is detection and precaution against rule-breaking by loophole of the system.
The results of rule-breaking occur in many forms: For example, tax avoidance, terror activities, rent seeking, monopolizing market, ecological destruction, corruption, posing risk to future generation.
Why predictive analysis can’t catch up with rule-breaker:
But in many cases, societies can’t catch up with rule-breaker in advance. And prediction of loophole of social system is usually slower than activities of actual rule-breaker.
Part of the reason is that prediction based on analysis needs abundant data and evidence, while finding loophole is result of creativity to find loophole that is unexpected by society.
Social System Hacking Game:
To detect systemic loophole earlier than rule-breaker, a better practice is joining system-breaking game along with rule-breaker.
If the game end up successfully, participant of the game find loophole earlier than rule-breaker. and the society protects the hole.
- Citizens can be divided into two types — rule-taker and rule-manipulator. Rule-taker is those who can’t manipulate the rule, such as lower or middle class. Rule-manipulator is those who are insider of the system and can manipulate the rule. Rule-manipulator is potential rule-breaker.
- Rule-taker can participate the game.
- The game is a simulated system with actual data.
- Participants try to find loophole of the system.
If they find the loophole, they are prized with money.
- The money can be interpreted as payment to contribute to fortify system.
It can also be regarded as distribution from rule breaker who could earn money from loophole of the system, to rule-taker who could have been sucked money by the system.
- Rule-takers usually have less internal information of social system than rule-manipulator. It is disadvantage to detect loophole in the game earlier than reality.
But if they tie each other, it could collective intelligence to solve the problem.
The CGI image blow is my analogy for the game.
The controllers with red cable is rule-manipulator; the controllers with blue cable is rule-taker.
The controllers is competing to search “hole” of the tax avoidance game. The setting can be interpreted as a kind of analogy of sperm race.
Similar activities in reality:
Hackers to be hired by security company:
Hackers who offer systemic vulnerability to a company earlier than malicious hackers.
It is preventive hacking for actual hacking.
The online platform connects companies which have real problem in data science, with users who compete to solve the problem each other. It is a model of platform for problem-solving game and rewarding solver.
Synthesis and resurrection of virus:
Synthesizing virus is similar effort to the system-hacking game in term of its precaution method.
It could predict possible disease by artificial virus in lab in advance, while the game can detect possible loophole in artificial system in advance.
For example, the review describes the effort (Wimmer, E., Mueller, S., Tumpey, T. M., & Taubenberger, J. K. (2009). Synthetic viruses: a new opportunity to understand and prevent viral disease. Nature Biotechnology, 27(12), 1163. http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2819212/):
In the future, large-scale changes will be introduced into numerous viruses, allowing the creation of redesigned particles that can provide new insights into biology or the design of new vectors that can prevent or cure infectious diseases, cure genetic deficiencies by delivering genes or treat cancer through oncolytic mechanisms, to name but a few applications.
Remaining Problems and Tasks:
- Detailed form of the game: How to simulate social system. How to participate the game.
- Can it overcome information asymmetry?: Can people who can’t touch actual social system find its loophole earlier than internal agent in the system? In other word, for example, can we find new ways of avoidance of tax earlier than lawyers in tax havens?
- Definition problem: Can division between rule-taker and rule-manipulator be separated rigorously?
- Can AI join the game?: In some cases, AI can detect and deal with complex problem much faster than human. For example in real-time trading, AI has beed used for automated trading.
But I don’t think AI can achieve finding systemic loophole well. Because the task needs creativity, specifically needs to find a way that people didn’t unexpected before. It may be too hard task for AI.